A Word (or Several) About the Weather

To supplement Frank's brief mention of our decision to postpone the trip, our plan had been to proceed with the strong current pushing us south along the East River, into the wide open waters of New York Harbor, through the Verrazano Narrows, out into the Atlantic Ocean south of Jamaica Bay and JFK airport, and so on to East Rockaway Inlet and Atlantic Beach, home of Sonny Corleone.

Don't think NY Harbor is wide open?  Here's a picture of a visitor:

That's a humpback whale!

The problem was that the wind was from the south, directly opposite the current.  This would have created substantial waves.  And worse, the winds were forecast to be fairly strong -- at least for catboats.

Small Craft Advisory

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1155 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
...STRONG SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN AND NEW YORK HARBOR
...ANZ338-355-030000-/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.140702T1700Z-140703T0000Z

NEW YORK HARBOR-SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-1155 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
...* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
NEW YORK HARBOR.
* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS 
OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...
AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

What's a "small craft," you say?  A catboat is the very definition of "small craft."
The forecast is for more of the same through the weekend:

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-

157 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014 

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

THIS AFTERNOON

S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

THU 

S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

THU NIGHT 

SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT... DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM. 

FRI 

W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING N 10 TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM IN THE MORNING.

FRI NIGHT 

N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.

SAT 

 N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING NW AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING W. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUN 

W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

Discretion being the better part of valor, and not to mention that being storm-bound in an isolated marina somewhere on the south shore of Long Island is not a particularly delightful prospect, we jointly decided to return to base, regroup, and try again in a few days.

Stay tuned.